Thursday, September 29, 2011

The end of the Taliban's deadliest weapon? New laser can 'listen' out for roadside explosives

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2040068/The-end-Talibans-deadliest-weapon-New-laser-listen-roadside-explosives.html
By EMILY ALLEN


The days of British soldiers being killed and maimed by hidden roadside bombs could be coming to an end thanks to a new laser that can 'listen' out for explosives. 

Researchers at Michigan State University say they have developed a new type of laser that could detect roadside bombs. 

These are by far the deadliest enemy weapon encountered in Iraq and Afghanistan and are planted at the sides of roads and are detonated as patrols pass. 

Chemistry professor Marcos Dantus looks at the laser technology. Researchers say they have developed a new type of laser that could detect roadside bombs
Chemistry professor Marcos Dantus looks at the laser technology. Researchers say they have developed a new type of laser that could detect roadside bombs

The explosives are responsible for around 60 per cent of soldiers' deaths. 
They are tough to spot because there are so many and finding and disabling them all is difficult.

However, the new laser potentially has the sensitivity and selectivity to canvas large areas and detect improvised explosive devices.
 

Marcos Dantus, chemistry professor and founder of BioPhotonic Solutions, led the team and has published the results in the current issue of Applied Physics Letters. 

He told Science Daily: 'The detection of IEDs in the field is extremely important and challenging because the environment introduces a large number of chemical compounds that mask the select few molecules that one is trying to detect.

Marcos Dantus, pictured, said the technology must be able to distinguish explosives from vast arrays of similar compounds that can be found in urban environments
Pioneering: Marcos Dantus, pictured, said the technology must be able to distinguish explosives from vast arrays of similar compounds

'Having molecular structure sensitivity is critical for identifying explosives and avoiding unnecessary evacuation of buildings and closing roads due to false alarms,' he said.

Since IEDs can be found in populated areas, the methods to detect these weapons must be nondestructive.
They also must be able to distinguish explosives from vast arrays of similar compounds that can be found in urban environments. 

Dantus' latest laser can make these distinctions even for quantities as small as a fraction of a billionth of a gram. 

A soldier defusing an IED in Afghanistan this year. New technology is being developed that could detect roadside bombs
Deadly: A soldier defusing an IED in Afghanistan this year. New technology is being developed that could detect roadside bombs and save lives

The laser beam combines short pulses that kick the molecules and make them vibrate, as well as long pulses that are used to 'listen' and identify the different 'chords.' 

The chords include different vibrational frequencies that uniquely identify every molecule, much like a fingerprint. 

The high-sensitivity laser can work in tandem with cameras and allows users to scan questionable areas from a safe distance. 

An IED blast in Helmand Province in Afghanistan. The explosives are responsible for around 60 per cent of soldiers' deaths
Risk: An IED blast in Helmand Province in Afghanistan. The explosives are responsible for around 60 per cent of soldiers' deaths

'The laser and the method we've developed were originally intended for microscopes, but we were able to adapt and broaden its use to demonstrate its effectiveness for standoff detection of explosives,' said Dantus, who hopes to net additional funding to take this laser from the lab and into the field. 

This research is funded in part by the Department of Homeland Security. 

BioPhotonic Solutions is a high-tech company Dantus launched in 2003 to commercialise technology invented in a spinoff from his research group at MSU.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2040068/The-end-Talibans-deadliest-weapon-New-laser-listen-roadside-explosives.html#ixzz1ZPS0HOyS

Zamrisyaf, Penemu Energi Listrik dari Gelombang Laut

http://www.jpnn.com/read/2011/09/29/104256/Zamrisyaf,-Penemu-Energi-Listrik-dari-Gelombang-Laut-
FEATURES
Kamis, 29 September 2011 , 12:01:00


Zamrisyaf bukanlah sarjana, bukan pula ilmuwan ternama. Namun, imajinasi dan kreativitasnya mengantarnya menjadi penemu sebuah karya berharga: Pembangkit listrik dari tenaga gelombang laut. 

AHMAD BAIDHOWI, Jakarta 

SIANG itu sebuah kapal meluncur dari Pelabuhan Teluk Bayur, Padang, Sumatera Barat, menuju Pelabuhan Tanjung Priok, Jakarta. Di dek kapal sebuah lonceng besar tergantung di tiang kayu. Seorang pria bertanya-tanya dalam hati, untuk apa gerangan lonceng itu.

Malamnya, Samudera Hindia memamerkan keganasannya. Gelombang besar menerjang, kapal pun terguncang. Semakin kencang hantaman gelombang, bunyi dentang lonceng besar di dek kapal itu terdengar makin lantang.

Itulah kisah tentang Zamrisyaf, karyawan PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). Pada awal 2000 itu dia melakukan perjalanan dinas dari Padang ke Jakarta.
Setelah perjalanan itu, otaknya terus berpikir. "Wah, jika energi gelombang itu bisa menggerakkan lonceng dengan begitu kuat, berarti energi gelombang itu juga bisa menggerakkan dinamo atau generator listrik," cerita Zamrisyaf, ditemui Jawa Pos di Kantor Penelitian dan Pengembangan (Litbang) PT PLN di Jakarta, Selasa pekan lalu (20/9).

Mengutak-atik peralatan listrik memang sudah menjadi hobinya sejak lama. Lulus dari Sekolah Teknik Menengah (STM) Muhammadiyah Padang jurusan teknik elektro, Zamrisyaf muda mulai berpikir untuk menerangi desanya yang gelap gulita.

Akhirnya, pada awal 1980, pria kelahiran Bukit Tinggi, 19 September 1958 itu mulai menemukan teknik pembangkit listrik tenaga mikrohidro. Dengan membuat kincir air dari kayu, dia memanfaatkan derasnya aliran air sungai untuk memutar kincir yang dihubungkan ke generator listrik.

Hasilnya, kincir air itu berhasil mengalirkan listrik untuk 30-an rumah di desanya, Desa Sitalang, Lubuk Basung, Sumatera Barat. Keberhasilan itu cepat tersiar dan ditiru puluhan desa lain di Sumatera Barat. Atas jasanya itu, pada 1983 Zamrisyaf dianugerahi penghargaan Kalpataru oleh Presiden Soeharto.
"Tapi, karena sulitnya mencari kerja, saat itu saya sebenarnya tengah merantau di Malaysia, sehingga penghargaan Kalpataru itu diterima oleh bapak saya," ujarnya.

Setelah mendapat Kalpataru, dia diminta pulang oleh Azwar Anas, gubernur Sumatera Barat saat itu, untuk membantu pengembangan listrik di wilayah terpencil. "Akhirnya, pada 16 Agustus 1983 saya mulai bekerja di PLN Sumatera Barat," ceritanya.

Dia pun bertugas mencari sumber-sumber pembangkit listrik mikrohidro di wilayah Sumatera Barat, termasuk kepulauan-kepulauan kecil seperti Mentawai. Akhirnya, pada 2000 itulah tercetus ide untuk menggunakan energi gelombang laut sebagai sumber pembangkit listrik.

Namun, mempraktikkan ide itu rupanya tak semudah membalikkan telapak tangan. Karena Zamrisyaf memang tidak mengenyam pendidikan tinggi atau kuliah di bidang energi laut, ide-idenya pun hanya dituangkan melalui serangkaian uji coba.

Ide dasarnya adalah menggunakan ponton atau tongkang kecil yang di atasnya ada semacam bandul yang bergerak memutar. Logikanya, ketika ponton miring atau bergerak karena empasan ombak, bandul akan memutar untuk mencari keseimbangan. Karena empasan ombak datang terus-menerus, bandul akan terus bergerak memutar.

Ketika poros dari bandul tersebut dihubungkan dengan dinamo, gerakan memutar itu akan diubah menjadi listrik. Karena itulah, teknik itu dinamainya pembangkit listrik tenaga gelombang-sistem bandulan (PLTG-SB). "Idenya memang sederhana. Tapi, praktiknya ternyata tidak semudah yang saya kira," ujarnya.

Pada 2002 Zamrisyaf melakukan uji coba pertama. Saat itu dia merangkai enam drum menjadi ponton. Di atasnya terdapat bandul, pelat becak, dan roda sepeda, namun belum dipasang dinamo.

Peralatan itu diangkat beramai-ramai bersama tetangga di Perumahan Mega Permai Muaro Panjalinan, Padang, untuk diapungkan di pantai dekat rumahnya. Namun, hasilnya belum memuaskan. Meski demikian, teorinya terbukti benar. Bandul bisa bergerak memutar, meski masih perlahan.

Setelah itu serangkaian uji coba pun dilakukan. Karena saat itu belum ada yang bersedia mendanai, Zamrisyaf harus merogoh kocek sendiri. Tak kurang dari Rp 40 juta dia keluarkan untuk membiayai percobaan-percobaannya.

Barulah pada 2007, uji cobanya dibantu PLN Sumatera Barat. Pada uji coba di Pantai Ulak Karang, Padang, tersebut, peralatan sudah dipasangi dinamo. "Lampunya bisa menyala, kadang terang, kadang redup. Tapi, intinya sudah terbukti bahwa energi gelombang laut bisa diubah menjadi energi listrik," ucap pria yang oleh teman-temannya dijuluki "Pendekar Listrik Gelombang Laut" tersebut.

Untuk mengembangkan temuannya itu, pada 2009 Zamrisyaf dipindahtugaskan dari kantornya di PLN Sumatera Barat ke Divisi Penelitian dan Pengembangan (Litbang) PLN Pusat di Jakarta. Demi temuannya, Zamrisyaf juga harus rela tinggal di kos-kosan di Jakarta, berpisah dengan istri dan tiga anaknya yang tinggal di Padang.

Di Litbang inilah temuannya terus dikembangkan, hingga akhirnya Zamrisyaf bertemu Profesor Mukhtasor, ahli teknik kelautan asal Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS) Surabaya. "Selama ini, temuan saya hanya berdasar uji coba. Jadi, kalau ditanya, berapakah besar ponton yang ideal, berapa panjang lengan, berapa berat bandulnya, saya tidak tahu rumusnya. Tapi, setelah bekerja sama dengan ITS, kini hitungannya sudah ketemu," jelasnya.

Berdasar kalkulasi ITS, model ponton terbaik bukanlah yang mengambang, melainkan ponton berbentuk seperti delima yang sebagian terendam dalam air. Untuk ponton dengan panjang lengan 2 meter, bandulnya seberat 10 kilogram. Dengan asumsi tinggi gelombang sekitar 0,5 - 1,5 meter, akan dihasilkan putaran 200,6 per menit (rpm) dan daya 25,20 kilowatt (kW).

Menurut Zamrisyaf, dalam ilmu perkapalan, para ilmuwan mencari cara agar kapal tetap stabil, tidak bergoyang terlalu kencang ketika terempas ombak. "Nah, untuk pembangkit listrik sistem bandulan ini, rumusnya dibalik. Jadi, dicari cara agar ponton bisa bergoyang lebih kencang ketika terkena ombak," terangnya.

Dengan skema hasil perhitungan ITS tersebut, lanjut dia, selain memberi tenaga putaran optimal, generator juga terlindung di dalam ponton. Dengan demikian, generator tidak terkena air laut yang bisa menyebabkan korosi.

Operasionalnya pun cukup sederhana. Dalam satu ponton dipasang empat lengan beserta bandulnya. Jika satu bandul menghasilkan 25 kW, satu ponton bisa menghasilkan 100 kW. Nanti, 50 ponton bisa dirangkai, sehingga total menghasilkan daya 5.000 kW atau 5 megawatt (MW). Dengan asumsi kebutuhan satu rumah 1.000 watt, rangkaian ponton tersebut bisa melistriki sekitar 5 ribu rumah.

Zamrisyaf mengatakan, rangkaian ponton itu dipasang sekitar 500 meter dari bibir pantai dan diberi jangkar agar tetap berada di posisinya. "Sistem ini sangat layak untuk melistriki kepulauan-kepulauan kecil di Indonesia," ujarnya.

Dimintai komentar terkait dengan temuan Zamrisyaf, Profesor Mukhtasor mengatakan sangat mengapresiasi. "Temuannya itu unik dan berdasar kalkulasi kami, bisa diterapkan di lapangan," kata anggota Dewan Energi Nasional (DEN) yang juga ketua Asosiasi Energi Laut Indonesia (Aseli) tersebut.

Menurut dia, sistem pembangkit listrik tenaga gelombang laut dengan sistem bandulan (PLTG-SB) potensial dikembangkan di wilayah Indonesia. Berdasar kajian ITS, pembangkit ini cocok ditempatkan di garis pantai yang berhadapan dengan laut lepas. "Kami sudah mengidentifikasi, di wilayah yang tidak mengganggu jalur lalu lintas laut, potensinya bisa mencapai 6 ribu megawatt (MW). Ini luar biasa besar," sebutnya.
   
Untuk itu, ITS bersama Zamrisyaf akan menggandeng Kementerian Riset dan Teknologi untuk melakukan uji coba lebih lanjut. "Target kami, 2012 nanti mulai uji coba lapangan. Jika ada hal yang kurang, segera diperbaiki, dan jika hasilnya bagus, bisa langsung dijalankan," kata Mukhtasor.

Zamrisyaf pun berharap PLN dan Kemenristek bisa membantu uji coba lanjutan agar ide tersebut bisa segera menghasilkan karya nyata. "Saya lihat di situs YouTube, ilmuwan-ilmuwan di Amerika mulai mengembangkan sistem ini. Mudah-mudahan saja kita tidak kalah cepat. Sebab, teknologi ini sangat bagus untuk melistriki wilayah-wilayah terpencil. Selain ramah lingkungan, bisa menghambat abrasi pantai akibat arus laut," ujarnya.
   
Sebenarnya Zamrisyaf sudah mendaftarkan hak paten temuannya itu pada 2002. Namun, karena lamanya proses pembuatan, hak paten itu baru keluar pada 2010 dengan nomor P.00200200854.

Itulah kisah Zamrisyaf, lulusan STM yang kreatif dan sarat prestasi. Selain Kalpataru pada 1983, dia pernah meraih penghargaan Perintis Lingkungan Hidup oleh Menteri Negara Sosial pada 1991, Tanda Kehormatan Satyalencana Pembangunan 2002 oleh Presiden, Dharma Karya Pertambangan dan Energi 2005 oleh Menteri ESDM, 100 Inovator Indonesia 2008 oleh Menteri Riset dan Teknologi. Yang terbaru, dia menjadi ikon program Inspirasi Indonesia di salah satu TV swasta. (c2/kum)

Sunday, September 18, 2011

LIPI Ciptakan Pengolah Air Kotor Jadi Air Bersih


Satu Untuk Indonesia 

Posted: 17 Sep 2011 05:19 AM PDT

Pusat Penelitian Fisika Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia berhasil menciptakan alat untuk mengolah air kotor menjadi air bersih yang layak diminum. Bahkan, air hasil olahan ini ditargetkan dapat memenuhi standar baku mutu kualitas air layak minum sesuai Peraturan Menteri Kesehatan RI No. 907/Menkes/SK/VII/2002 secara uji fisika, kimia, dan biologi. 


Salah satu tim peneliti, Perdamean Sebayang, menjelaskan ide alat ini berawal saat banjir melanda beberapa daerah yang menyebabkan kurangnya pasokan air. Sistem pengolahan air bersih dan air minum LIPI ini dirancang agar mudah dibawa dan dapat dioperasikan tanpa sumber listrik dari PLN. Alat tersebut berukuran sekitar 1 meter x 1,5 meter dengan tinggi 1 meter.

Proses penyaringan air ini bermula dari sistem prefilter. Dalam sistem itu, ada 3 tahap yaitu, cyclone filterfilter media, dansediment cartridge filter. Pada tahap cyclone filter, air kotor yang masuk akan tersaring berbagai kotoran, seperti lumpur, pasir besi, dan logam berat. Selanjutnya di tahap filter media, 3 tabung filter yang berisi silica sandmanganese sandcarbon activecation exchange eesin akan menghilangkan bau dan keruh pada air. Sedangkan pada tahap cartridge filter, air akan menyaring berbagai kuman seperti protozoa, virus, dan bakteri. 

 "Setelah melewati 3 tahap ini, lalu masuk tahap ultra filtrationyang menyaring jenis virus dan bakteri yang bentuknya lebih kecil yang belum tersaring. Lalu air masuk ke RO filter, dan air yang keluar adalah air bersih dan siap diminum," paparnya. 

Proses konversi air kotor menjadi air bersih ini hanya berlangsung dalam hitungan seperempat menit. Bahkan alat ini telah dirancang secara fisika tanpa menggunakan bahan kimia yaitu dengan menggunakan lapisan-lapisan dari ukuran yang paling kasar hingga paling halus dalam orde nanometer (sepermiliar meter).  "Alat ini juga bisa untuk menyaring air laut," tambah Perdamean. 

Alat yang menelan biaya Rp100 juta ini, bisa digerakkan dengan suplai listrik sebesar 5.000 watt. Air bersih yang dihasilkan bisa mencapai 1.200 liter per jam dan air minum sebanyak 600 liter per jam. Perawatannya hanya dilakukan dua hari sekali dengan melakukan pencucian endapan dan kotoran yang berada dalam filter. 

Perdamean melanjutkan, saat ini LIPI telah memiliki satu unit alat yang siap dipakai. Saat ini pula, tim yang beranggotakan 6 peneliti tengah menciptakan alat sejenis dengan harga yang terjangkau untuk bisa diaplikasikan di masyarakat. (Sumber: LIPI)/National Geographic

Friday, September 16, 2011

RELIGION Articles of Faith: Will a Slew of Overturned State Laws Galvanize the Christian Right?

TIME
http://swampland.time.com/2011/09/16/articles-of-faith-will-a-slew-of-overturned-state-laws-galvanize-the-christian-right/
By AMY SULLIVAN


Judges on the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals sounded skeptical this week as they heard arguments about why a ban on sharia law in Oklahoma courts should become part of the state’s constitution. “We just have sharia law singled out,” said Judge Scott Matheson, while one of his colleagues pressed the state’s solicitor general to confirm that the ban applies to only one religion. Seventy percent of Oklahoma voters supported the ballot initiative–known as the “Save Our State” amendment–last November, not because sharia often comes up in the Oklahoma court system, but as a preemptive measure against a shadowy, frightening future.
Not long after Election Day, a U.S. District Court judge ordered Oklahoma to refrain from certifying the referendum results. Her reasoning was that the ban was likely to be found unconstitutional on First Amendment grounds because it dealt with only one religion’s legal code. And based on the tenor of this week’s questioning by the Appeals Court, she was probably right.
Anti-abortion activists have run into similar problems with their efforts to enact a variety of abortion restrictions at the state level. Two weeks ago, a U.S. district court judge issued an injunction against parts of a new Texas law that would require women seeking abortions not only to have sonograms, but to listen to detailed descriptions of their fetuses and hear the heartbeat, if audible, as well. As the state’s appeal now moves to the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, opponents of the law feel confident that it will be found to have violated the First Amendment by forcing doctors to engage in government-mandated speech.
Around the same time, Kansas officials announced they would comply with a federal judge’s directive to resume funding Planned Parenthood clinics. The state had passed a law earlier this year essentially stripping Planned Parenthood of federal family planning dollars by requiring Kansas to direct funding to public hospitals and health centers. A U.S. District Court judge blocked enforcement of the new law over the summer and funding to Planned Parenthood clinics was supposed to continue. But somehow the money never made its way to the clinics until the court issued its most recent “I really mean it.”
On their face, these rulings might seem like major defeats for conservatives. All told, five states so far this year have passed laws blocking funding for Planned Parenthood clinics, and nearly two dozen states have introduced or passed laws to ban the use of sharia in court cases. These laws are being knocked down in court almost as quickly as they’re entered into the rule books. (Federal judges have also blocked laws banning funding to Planned Parenthood in Indiana and North Carolina.) Are conservatives engaged in a senseless effort with these legislative initiatives?
Not exactly. In fact, you could argue that the constitutionality of sharia bans and the effectiveness of attempts to block funding for Planned Parenthood are almost beside the point. Yes, many of the organizers and financial backers of these efforts are genuinely concerned about abortion and genuinely frightened about sharia, even if they often can’t say exactly what sharia is. But that doesn’t prevent them from recognizing the political benefit to agitating about the dangers of Planned Parenthood or sharia–a catch-all word used by people who fear Islam and Muslims. A generous description of the political upside to these campaigns would be “framing the cultural debate.” Another one would be “fear-mongering.”
The beauty of the strategy is that it plays directly into a narrative conservative Christians have been weaving for over a generation. After all, the political reawakening of many Christian fundamentalists took place in the 1970s after a series of court decisions took Bible reading and prayer out of public schools. (They were also eventually–but not immediately–mobilized by the Roe v. Wade case.) For conservative Christians who had withdrawn from public engagement to focus on spiritual concerns, these judicial actions made them realize that whether they were politically involved or not, the government could impact their lives and shape society around them.
For the past few decades, then, many conservative Christians have viewed themselves as soldiers in a fight against government representatives who want to impose secular values on them. Remember the Justice Sunday events of a few years ago, when Christian Right organizations railed against “activist judges” who sanctioned gay marriage? These Christians don’t have to view judges as Satan’s agents to see them as enemies.
So, legal roadblocks to measures banning sharia or ending Planned Parenthood fit the narrative: Good Christian folk try to turn their values into law, only to be stymied time and again by secular judges and bureaucrats. With an important presidential election coming up, the wave of unconstitutional social legislation couldn’t be better timed for conservative political strategists. If conservative Christians go into their voting booths in November 2012 believing that they are under siege by a secular political system, then the stakes are far higher for them than simply the difference between two candidates’ positions on Social Security.
Amy Sullivan is contributing writer at TIME, and author of the book The Party Faithful: How and Why Democrats are Closing the God Gap (Scribner, 2008). Articles of Faith, her column on the intersection of religion and politics, appears on TIME.com every Friday.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

The jobless young Left behind

http://www.economist.com/node/21528614?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/ar/leftbehind

The harm today’s youth unemployment is doing will be felt for decades, both by those affected and by society at large



MARIA GIL ULLDEMOLINS is a smart, confident young woman. She has one degree from Britain and is about to conclude another in her native Spain. And she feels that she has no future.
Ms Ulldemolins belongs to a generation of young Spaniards who feel that the implicit contract they accepted with their country—work hard, and you can have a better life than your parents—has been broken. Before the financial crisis Spanish unemployment, a perennial problem, was pushed down by credit-fuelled growth and a prolonged construction boom: in 2007 it was just 8%. Today it is 21.2%, and among the young a staggering 46.2%. “I trained for a world that doesn’t exist,” says Ms Ulldemolins.


Spain’s figures are particularly horrendous. But youth unemployment is rising perniciously across much of the developed world. It can seem like something of a side show; the young often have parents to fall back on; they can stay in education longer; they are not on the scrapheap for life. They have no families to support nor dire need of the medical insurance older workers may lose when they lose their jobs. But there is a wealth of evidence to suggest that youth unemployment does lasting damage.
In the past five years youth unemployment has risen in most countries in the OECD, a rich-country club (see chart 1). One in five under-25s in the European Union labour force is unemployed, with the figures particularly dire in the south. In America just over 18% of under-25s are jobless; young blacks, who make up 15% of the cohort, suffer a rate of 31%, rising to 44% among those without a high-school diploma (the figure for whites is 24%). Other countries, such as Switzerland, the Netherlands and Mexico, have youth unemployment rates below 10%: but they are rising.
The costs mount up
In tough times young people are often the first to lose out. They are relatively inexperienced and low-skilled, and in many countries they are easier to fire than their elders. This all goes to make them obvious targets for employers seeking savings, though their low pay can redress things a little. In much of the OECD youth-unemployment rates are about twice those for the population as a whole. Britain, Italy, Norway and New Zealand all exceed ratios of three to one; in Sweden the unemployment rate among 15- to 24-year-olds is 4.1 times higher than that of workers aged between 25 and 54.
Not only is the number of underemployed 15- to 24-year-olds in the OECD higher than at any time since the organisation began collecting data in 1976. The number of young people in the rich world who have given up looking for work is at a record high too. Poor growth, widespread austerity programmes and the winding up of job-creating stimulus measures threaten further unemployment overall. The young jobless often get a particular bounce in recoveries: first out, they are often also first back in. But the lack of a sharp upturn means such partial recompense has not been forthcoming this time round. In America the jobs recovery since 2007 has been nearly twice as slow as in the recession of the early 1980s, the next-worst in recent decades—and from a worse starting-point. In some countries a rigging of the labour market in favour of incumbents and against the young makes what new jobs there are inaccessible.
Youth unemployment has direct costs in much the same way all unemployment does: increased benefit payments; lost income-tax revenues; wasted capacity. In Britain a report by the London School of Economics (LSE), the Royal Bank of Scotland and the Prince’s Trust puts the cost of the country’s 744,000 unemployed youngsters at £155m ($247m) a week in benefits and lost productivity.
Some indirect costs of unemployment, though, seem to be amplified when the jobless are young. One is emigration: ambitious young people facing bleak prospects at home often seek opportunities elsewhere more readily than older people with dependent families. In Portugal, where the youth unemployment rate stands at 27%, some 40% of 18- to 30-year-olds say they would consider emigrating for employment reasons. In some countries, such as Italy, a constant brain-drain is one more depressing symptom of a stagnant economy. In Ireland, where discouragement among young workers has shot up since 2005 (see chart 2), migration doubled over the same period, with most of the departed between 20 and 35. This return of a problem the “Celtic tiger” once thought it had left behind is treated as a national tragedy.
It’s personal
Another cost is crime. Attempts to blame England’s recent riots on youth unemployment were overhasty. But to say there is no link to crime more generally looks unduly optimistic. Young men are already more likely to break the law than most; having more free time, more motive and less to lose hardly discourages them. Some researchers claim to have identified a causal link between increased youth unemployment and increases in crime, specifically property crime (robbery, burglary, car theft and damage) and drug offences. No such link is seen for overall unemployment. If the crime leads to prison, future employment prospects fall off a cliff.
And then there are the effects on individuals. Young people are hit particularly hard by the economic and emotional effects of unemployment, says Jonathan Wadsworth, a labour economist at the LSE. The best predictor of future unemployment, research shows, is previous unemployment. In Britain a young person who spends just three months out of work before the age of 23 will on average spend an additional 1.3 months in unemployment between the ages of 28 and 33 compared with someone without the spell of youth joblessness. A second stint of joblessness makes things worse.
Research from the United States and Britain has found that youth unemployment leaves a “wage scar” that can persist into middle age. The longer the period of unemployment, the bigger the effect. Take two men with the same education, literacy and numeracy scores, places of residence, parents’ education and IQ. If one of them spends a year unemployed before the age of 23, ten years later he can expect to earn 23% less than the other. For women the gap is 16%. The penalty persists, though it shrinks; at 42 it is 12% for women and 15% for men. So far, the current crisis has not led to these long-term periods of youth unemployment rising very much; almost 80% of young people in the OECD who become unemployed are back in work within a year. But that could well change.
The scarring effects are not necessarily restricted to the people who are actually unemployed. An American study shows that young people graduating from college and entering the labour market during the deep recessions of the early 1980s suffered long-term wage scarring. Graduates in unlucky cohorts suffer a wage decline of 6-7% for each percentage-point increase in the overall unemployment rate. The effect diminishes over time, but is still statistically significant 15 years later.
After a period of unemployment, the temptation to take any work at all can be strong. Wage scarring is one of the reasons to think this has lasting effects, and policies designed to minimise youth unemployment may sometimes exacerbate them. Spain, which has developed a scheme for rolling over temporary contracts to provide at least some chances of employment to the young, should pay heed to the experience of Japan in the early 2000s. Young people unemployed for a long time were channelled into “non-regular” jobs where pay was low and opportunities for training and career progression few. Employers seeking new recruits for quality jobs generally preferred fresh graduates (of school or university) over the unemployed or underemployed, leaving a cohort of people with declining long-term job and wage prospects: “youth left behind”, in the words of a recent OECD report. Japan’s “lost decade” workers make up a disproportionate share of depression and stress cases reported by employers.
Unemployment of all sorts is linked with a level of unhappiness that cannot simply be explained by low income. It is also linked to lower life expectancy, higher chances of a heart attack in later life, and suicide. A study of Pennsylvania workers who lost jobs in the 1970s and 1980s found that the effect of unemployment on life expectancy is greater for young workers than for old. Workers who joined the American labour force during the Great Depression suffered from a persistent lack of confidence and ambition for decades.
There are other social effects, too, such as “full-nest syndrome”. In 2008, 46% of 18- to 34-year-olds in the European Union lived with at least one parent; in most countries the stay-at-homes were more likely to be unemployed than those who had moved out. The effect is particularly notable in the countries of southern Europe, where unemployment is high and declining fertility means small families: a recent study by CGIL, an Italian trade-union federation, found that more than 7m Italians aged between 18 and 35 were still living with their parents. Since 2001 one in four British men in their 20s, and one in six women, have “boomeranged” home for a period. This sort of change will, for good or ill, ripple on down the generations which may, if young people live longer and longer at home, become more spread out.
In lieu of jobs
In some countries, particularly in southern Europe, the main focus for governments should be on opening up labour markets that lock out younger workers (see article). In countries with more flexible labour markets, the emphasis tends to be on “skilling up” young people. This is not a panacea.
Universities can be a source of skills and a place to sit out the doldrums, so students are entering and staying on at university more and more. American graduate schools have received at least 20% more applications since 2008. But as they build up debts, not all these students will be improving their job prospects. Having a university degree still increases the chances of employment, but joblessness among college graduates in America is the highest it has been since 1970.
There are dangers in vocational training, too. The Wolf report, a review of vocational education in Britain published this year, pointed out that the wrong kind of training can actually damage employment prospects. It found that almost a third of 16- to 19-year-olds in Britain are enrolled in low-level vocational courses that have little or no labour-market value. Research indicates that taking a year or two to complete schemes of this sort reduces lifetime earnings unless the schemes are combined with employer-based apprenticeships.
In Germany, seen by many as a model in this regard, a quarter of employers provide formal apprenticeship schemes and nearly two-thirds of schoolchildren undertake apprenticeships. Students in vocational schools spend around three days a week as part-time salaried apprentices of companies for two to four years. The cost is shared by the company and the government, and it is common for apprenticeships to turn into jobs at the end of the training. The youth-unemployment rate in Germany, at 9.5%, is one of the lowest in the EU. Apprentice-style approaches practised in the Netherlands and Austria have had similar results.
Germany’s export-driven economy, with its army of specialised manufacturers, may be particularly suited to the apprenticeship model. It is not obvious how easily it could be imported into more service-oriented economies. America, for example, lacks the institutions—strong unions, compliant management and a hands-on government—that have made the German model so successful. Such programmes would also have to overcome cultural obstacles. Bill Clinton’s school-to-work initiative, a nod to the apprenticeship system, was derided as second-rate education. Even in the skilled trades where apprenticeships have caught on, the model has suffered because of the collapse of the construction industry. Britain, though, seems willing to give it a whirl. Last year 257,000 positions were created.
Yet this may be of little use to the hardest-to-reach under-25s, who often come from backgrounds where worklessness is the norm and the lack of adult role models creates aspiration gaps at an early age. “Targeted programmes with one-on-one attention are what these young people need,” believes Paul Brown, a director of the Prince’s Trust. “Policies aimed at all young people will only make the neediest fall through the cracks.