Studied Southeast Asian history and politics
- Indonesia has no territorial claims in the South China Sea. It does not claim any islands or land features in the same way that Vietnam or Malaysia or the Philippines claim the Spratlys
- However, its EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) does overlap with China’s Nine-Dash Line claim around the Natuna area. An EEZ basically refers to the waters extending 200nm from a nation’s shores or continental shelf. The resources (oil, gas, fisheries, minerals) within that 200nm area can ONLY be extracted and used by that nation itself (in this case, Indonesia).
Because Indonesia’s EEZ claim overlaps with the Nine-Dash Line (China has not yet explained exactly what the line means, in legal terms), there have been disputes between Indonesia and China. Recently, Chinese fishing vessels intruded upon Indonesia’s legal EEZ in the North Natuna Sea, which China claims is “traditional fishing grounds” for Chinese fishermen. Indonesia’s response was to deploy naval warships to chase off those fishing boats.
I do NOT agree with what China is doing right now in the South China Sea. But war is not the answer.
The question is quite provocative: war is not something that should be lightly discussed. Indonesia is formidable, yes, but it is no match for China. No matter how bright a torch might burn, it cannot match the rising sun. Militarily and economically, China outweighs all the 10 ASEAN members combined in every possible index of comprehensive national power.
War would be reckless and fruitless. Thousands would die. The regional and global economy would be disrupted. Everything we have built in ASEAN over the last 30 years since the end of the Cold War would be undone. And as a Singaporean living in the same neighborhood as Indonesia, I don’t think I would want to see that happen.
War is not the solution, because it is a stupid solution. If we want to push back against Chinese assertiveness, we should be smart about it. The instruments of choice are:
ASEAN cohesion: the biggest problem here is that ASEAN is divided. We must come to a common diplomatic consensus about how to respond intelligently to Chinese behaviour in the South China Sea. There is a need for ASEAN members to coordinate their policy positions on the SCS. China’s preference, when negotiating on the SCS issue, has been to divide and conquer. The Chinese do not want to negotiate with ASEAN as a multilateral group; they prefer to negotiate bilaterally with each of the separate claimants. This gives China an advantage because it can leverage its superior geopolitical weight against each separate claimant. ASEAN must be able to act as one. It is faaaar from a military alliance like NATO, but it must be able to at least coordinate politically and diplomatically on this issue, which concerns our common regional neighbourhood. This will be difficult, because there are already countries such as Laos and Cambodia which are “soft-bandwagoning” with China. The Ramifications of China's Reported Naval Base in Cambodia Indonesia should play a more active leading role in forging regional consensus among ASEAN, while remaining sensitive to the interests of all member states
International law: Recently, after years of being passive about the SCS, Indonesia recognized the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the South China Sea (Philippines v China). (Indonesia Cites 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal Award at UN. Is That a Big Deal?). This is a small but significant symbolic gesture. Compared to China, all the ASEAN members are small states. This is why we MUST support the rule of international law. International laws such as UNCLOS (UN Convention on the Law of the Sea) tie the hands of bigger power; they constrain big powers from behaving in whatever way they wish. The smaller the country, the more important international law. As the smallest state in the region, Singapore has always recognized this fact. ASEAN must become more adept at waging “lawfare”. Winning Without Fighting: Chinese Legal Warfare
Power-balancing: All of ASEAN combined cannot match China in raw power. So the solution is to cultivate the strategic engagement of other powers such as India, Japan, and the US as counterweights. The South China Sea is not just China’s backyard. Others depend on the commerce passing through these waters and have a vested interest in ensuring the free flow of maritime traffic through the SCS. Singapore, for its part, despite being a non-claimant to the territorial dispute, has facilitated an American naval presence in the region by allowing for rotational basing of US air and naval assets in Changi Naval Base since the 1990s. Why? Because we understood that America is needed here in our region to level the strategic equation. Without the US presence, the balance of power would tip heavily in China’s favor. In the 1990s, our neighbours (Malaysia and Indonesia) complained about us inviting the US navy into their midst. By the 2010s, when the SCS disputes really heated up, they have fallen silent. They now realize the value of the American presence. The Philippines since 2016 has allowed the US a rotational military presence in 5 of its military bases, as well as turning to Japan for capacity-building (i.e. the Japanese are helping them build up their naval and maritime patrol capabilities). The Vietnamese recently received an American aircraft carrier at Da Nang, as well as the Japanese helicopter destroyer Izumo at Cam Ranh Bay.
Indonesia is large; it has its national pride to take care of, and its bebas dan actif (free and active foreign policy). It will be understandably more reluctant to host the US military. But there is a whole spectrum of options apart from permanent military bases: rotational basing, joint exercises, military exchanges, strategic dialogues etc.
Of course, this does not mean that we must automatically favor one Great Power over another, or completely submit to either one. ASEAN must be able to manoeuvre and maintain its autonomy. China and the US both seek to capture ASEAN whole. Depending on our regional interest, on some issues we will agree with the US, on other issues we will agree with China, and on other issues we will go our own separate way. We need to be able to manipulate the competing geopolitical gravity of multiple powers (US, China, Japan, India, etc.) to further our own interests. This will maximize our autonomy.
China is not our enemy. We all want to get along with China. We all want to invest and trade with China. Personally, I welcome the rise of China and a more multipolar world - it will counterbalance the more missionary Western powers. The 1990s decade of American-dominated unipolarity and hubristic liberal triumphalism has been quite satisfactorily punctured.
Chinese behaviour in the South China Sea, however, poses a challenge that must be managed. Even while engaging/cooperating with China, ASEAN should not allow itself to be pushed around.
So far there have only been 2 ASEAN countries that have been powerful enough and willing enough to directly stand up to China, militarily or paramilitarily, in the South China Sea. The first is Vietnam. The second is Indonesia. The positions of these two countries will be crucial in the years to come.
Is There Any Way to Counter China's Gray Zone Tactics in the South China Sea?
Is There Any Way to Counter China's Gray Zone Tactics in the South China Sea?
The whole of ASEAN is quietly watching how Indonesia reacts.
War is not the answer. And Indonesia, however strong it may be, cannot go it alone. We, ASEAN, must act together. United we stand, divided we fall.
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