`X' factor may favor Republicans on final day

http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailworld.asp?fileid=20061108.J02&irec=1

November 08, 2006

Avian E. Tumengkol, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

At 6 a.m. Tuesday (6 p.m. in Jakarta), the American people began casting their votes in races for the United States Congress. The ballots are being counted as the paper goes out this morning.

A top issue in the U.S. media, which has been echoed by the Democratic Party, is Iraq. On one side, we see Bush trying to convince voters that Republicans stand for aggressively protecting the U.S. people. On the other side, Senator John Kerry managed to rile many in his own party with his comment about U.S. troops being "stuck in Iraq," which has sidelined him from public appearances.

In Kerry's absence, former president Bill Clinton and 2000 nominee Al Gore have been filling in on the front lines of the Democratic campaigns. Kerry's misstep, or what he insists is a `misinterpretation', could be the crucial 'X' factor that proves decisive in a closely-divided electorate. That would be history repeating itself, in a sense. It was Kerry whose wife who slipped up in the waning days of the 2004 presidential election, saying she wasn't sure First Lady Laura Bush had ever had a "real job", a remark many found insulting.

The U.S. economy today is performing well, with the stock market at a 10-year record high, and unemployment and income taxes low. Democrats have fallen short of addressing the economy in their campaigns. The Republicans, surprisingly, would prefer to focus on positive developments in Iraq, which have been crowded out in the media and the public mind by the ongoing violence there. But the key issue in this year's congressional election is not Iraq or the economy. It's whether Americans will come out to cast their votes. Not to mention those `X' factors, which can have substantial influence in the minds of voters.
Former congressman Mark Foley's scandal last month involving explicit e-mails to Congressional interns has given Democrats a marginal lead in most U.S. polls. The media has covered the Foley story more than Iraq and terrorism combined, according to an analysis by the Center for Media and Public Affairs.

Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, a Republican and potential 2008 presidential candidate, appearing on Fox's The O'Reilly Factor, said he is not sure Independents and Democrats are interested enough, saying "I don't think they're even going to vote." The Economist, however, reports that "the scent of Republican defeat is in the air." Most TV and print media outlets predict that the Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives, after twelve years, and perhaps the Senate as well. One month ago, most national polls showed Democrats in the lead. One week ago, the margin tightened. And on Monday, a day before election day, FOX News chief political correspondent Carl Cameron reported the race for control of the Senate is "too tight to call" and the outcome will depend on key battleground states such as Maryland, Missouri, Virginia, and Tennessee.

In Maryland, a traditionally Democratic state, Republican Michael Steele is battling Ben Cardin for a Senate seat. Steele claims the influential Washington Post newspaper is biased against him. He recently promised to splash his electoral victory across its front page. If he can pull it off, that will likely indicate how the overall election will go. "On Wednesday morning, the Washington Post will read "Steele wins," he says.